All transport is local
All politics is local, so the saying goes. The local elections in May will include elections for all London borough councils, all local authorities in Wales and Scotland and many parts of England. As always, the main parties have sought to draw the battlelines nationally but there will be important local factors too.
Transport isn’t a vote-winner, but that’s not to say it doesn’t hold some local significance. It is a central plank of levelling-up with the White Paper including a mission to create local public transport connectivity “significantly closer to the standards of London” everywhere by 2030. Decarbonisation of transport will be crucial to achieving Net Zero. Transport — most especially the condition and maintenance of local roads (which are used far more than motorways) — is far and away the most criticised public service.
Many UK cities, including Bath, Birmingham, Bradford and Portsmouth, have joined London in enforcing a fee for certain types of vehicles to drive in its city centres, with a number of others planning roll-out this year (there have been some cancellations too). In Scotland, Clean Air Zones are being implemented in Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, and Glasgow. Nationally, road pricing is receiving more frequent attention as an option to fill in a fiscal hole caused by electrification.
So, it is significant that a new Ipsos poll finds higher levels of support than opposition for schemes which charge drivers to use city roads. Across the UK, 45% support, in-principle, the introduction of such schemes to reduce congestion and improve the environment. This is, though, down from 62% in late 2020 perhaps because memories were fresher then of the positive effect of lockdowns on congestion and air quality.
Just as there is a patchwork of local schemes, so public opinion varies considerably area by area. Last summer’s annual National Highways and Transport Survey, involving sample surveys across over 100 council areas, found support as high as 58% in one London borough and as low as 18% in South Tyneside.
The reason for introducing schemes is to not to garner popularity but to change behaviours and improve outcomes. Our analysis finds support for charging schemes is more strongly correlated with local dissatisfaction with air quality than with traffic congestion. In a preliminary evaluation of plans to implement Clean Air Zones (CAZ), a large proportion of residents believed they would not change their travel behaviour where certain more polluting vehicles would be charged to drive within the CAZ area; less than half of those surveyed in each area said they would be affected. Support for schemes was high; it’s easier to support something that affects other people and changes their behaviour.
By a margin of more than four to one, people support rather than oppose encouraging the use of electric vehicles instead of petrol or diesel vehicles. However, a higher proportion oppose than support only allowing access to certain town and city centres to electric or hybrid cars or vans on some days. Similarly, the public support encouragement being given to active travel and use of public transport but remain wedded to their cars. It seems ‘carrots’ win over ‘sticks’.
Politics matters. Nationally, opposition to charging schemes is much higher among Conservative voters than their Labour counterparts — 43% against 27% — something that is also the case for Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs). People living in the most deprived areas were more lukewarm than other types of area about charging. LTNs have been criticised for displacing congestion and pollution from residential to main roads where many Londoners live, including many of the city’s poorest.
Anxious about the impact of the Clean Air Zone on residents and business, Andy Burnham — the major of Greater Manchester — said in February that it would be a temporary measure and called on the government to push back the deadline for meeting air quality requirements by three years to 2027.
The cost of living crisis and eye-watering rises in petrol prices will increase sensitivity to policies perceived as anti-car even if they are necessary. In the States, there is some evidence that rising petrol prices have prompted an increase in public transport patron, but this can only happen if local provision is good enough and it often isn’t.
Charging schemes and policy interventions to encourage us to leave the car at home are starting to shape our cities, but not yet our politics. That might be about to change.
