Everything changes, nothing changes
As we look forwards to Christmas and start to say goodbye to 2021, there’s a palpable whiff of “not again” in the air. The incredible speed at which omicron is spreading, the hasty remaking of Christmas plans, the imposition of restrictions we had hoped we wouldn’t see again and the race between vaccine and virus, has turned the mood sour.
Previously, 56% of Brits had rated the year as having been bad for them personally, an improvement on the equivalent 70% rating for 2020. But a lot has changed in the past ten days and recency bias might shape our memories of a year in which things did get better in many ways.
Britons are not confident that we will get over the pandemic next year. Perhaps more sobering than the finding from Ipsos MORI that almost two-thirds think that another national lockdown is likely next year, is that a similar proportion expect to see a new variant which is completely resistant to vaccines. Seven in ten don’t think we’ll see all Covid restrictions lifted permanently during the next 12 months.
This all looks superficially samey, as does a quick review of the main trends in British public opinion. Despite the shocking impacts of the pandemic in so many areas of our lives, public attitudes and values have changed less than might be expected. Where change has occurred, it has often been driven by long-running trends that pre-date Covid. However, here are five ways in which public opinion has changed this year, or at least change has become apparent:
1. Covid impacts. People’s expectations for the country and their own behaviours after the pandemic remain largely the same, but fewer Britons than last year expected the economy and British society to be impacted by the pandemic. Of course, this is relative, and the first national lockdown had such a momentous impact on our collective and individual psyches. The period since the summer involved many of us finding our way in a ‘new normal’, living with Covid, and then omicron arrived.
2. The salience of other issues, especially climate change. Mid-year, Covid was displaced as the world’s top worry, overtaken by economic concerns. In October, Covid fell to become one a set of leading issues for the nation, rather than its biggest concern. A month later, pollution and climate change jumped to become Britain’s biggest concern with its highest ever score. Whether or not this was a COP26 ‘bounce’ is moot, but the priority the public attach to tackling climate change has become front and centre this year.
3. Conceptions of the economy. In November, Britons said they were most likely to be influenced by information concerning inflation and increases in prices when assessing the state of the economy. Whilst these plus unemployment remain key factors, people are much less likely to think about public debt than they were and much more likely to think about other indicators like average salaries, house prices and interest rates. The ‘cost of living crisis’ was also evident this year in a survey for London Councils — the cost of living was identified by 18% of Londoners as the most important issue facing the capital, matching the proportion who mentioned Covid.
4. Hedonistic sentiment. This has waned; another Ipsos MORI survey this year showed that it fallen to its lowest level for 22 years. Between 1999 and 2019 the proportion of people agreeing with the idea that “The important thing is to enjoy life today, tomorrow will take care of itself” increased. But opinion has been reversed in the past two years and, in 2021 — the first time since 1999 — more disagreed than agreed with this statement.
At the same time, the proportion of Britons saving more money due to the coronavirus pandemic rose during the year. There seems to be a juxtaposition between the public being in the habit of tightening belts and making sacrifices today on the one hand, and on the other, Governments spending like there is no tomorrow and retailers willing a ‘great unlock’.
5. Political opinion. At the start of the year, the Conservatives were in a groove, racking up lead after lead in the polls, and in May, they won the Hartlepool by-election with a swing from Labour of almost 16%. By-elections are not always great weathervanes, but the polls showed a party defying political gravity, boosted by a successful vaccination programme and, perhaps, the public’s benefit of the doubt after Brexit was ‘done’, an apparently ‘Teflon’ Prime Minister and an opposition struggling to find an identity to cut-through.
But the drip-drip of stories about ‘sleaze’, or at least wrong-doing, plus faltering delivery and the Prime Minister’s deteriorating personal image, have changed things. This was seen recently in the ‘earthquake’ loss of North Shropshire and the Conservatives have moved from rock-solid in the polls to 32% in one of them this month. Johnson’s large majority in Parliament suddenly looks fragile and the “Leavers are leaving him”. Now, 43% of the public, even 26% of those who voted Conservative in 2019, rate the Government’s performance as worse than they expected.
Typically, British public opinion is better characterised as ‘continuity’ rather than ‘change’ and, where change happens, it is usually a continuous process rather than an overnight phenomenon. There are numerous perils of prediction and there is truth in the adage that change is only evident when it’s actually happened, but how society and politics copes with unpredictability and builds resilience, will shape the rest of the 2020s.
The changes we’ve seen during 2021 might be short-lived or move into reverse during 2022. Time will tell, but they’re certainly ones to watch.
