Go west, or east?
Europe, the U.S., or both? — British public opinion
It was an accidental case of doom scrolling. I was flicking through the list of new episodes by my favourite podcasters earlier this week to choose which one to listen to next, when one stood out — ‘Is Europe heading for war with Russia?’.
That this doesn’t sound sensationalist shows just how worrisome the world has become. A few days later I noticed a new episode — ‘Can Keir Starmer be the ‘bridge’ between Europe and Trump?’
These titles reflect a turbulent first months since Donald Trump took over from Joe Biden. In recent days the British media has speculated that the President’s stance could force Starmer to “choose” between the U.S. and Europe before settling on an idea that he, and Britain, would sit mid-Atlantic, working to soften Trump’s anti-Europeanism and helping to save America’s commitment to NATO.
Sound familiar? Probably. Whether Britain should look west or (near) east has been the subject of long-running debate dating back to at least the 1960s. Then, Dean Acheson famously quipped that “Great Britain has lost an Empire but not yet found a role”. The narrative has been Britain hasn’t known whether to turn towards a special relationship or a new one?
This got me thinking. Does the British public have a preference?
Warm, cold, warmer again
In January, an Ipsos poll found that nearly half of Britons (47%) considered Europe to be most important to Britain, more so than the USA or the Commonwealth. This was the largest share since this question was first asked in 2019 when the figure stood at 39%. The proportion far exceeds those who think the USA (21%) or the Commonwealth (15%) are most important.
This is a recent trend, enduring only after the EU referendum in 2016 and a little before ‘Brexit day’ in 2020. However, although not strictly comparable, in the 1970s MORI found one in five (21%) thought Europe was most important, one in three (34%) the Commonwealth and the same share plumped for America. But by the early 1990s, exactly half (50%) thought it was Europe, a high watermark in advance of the start of a period of growing Euroscepticism.
While Europe is not the same as the European Union, these became interchangeable in public consciousness. Today, half of Britons, 51%, think Brexit has been more a failure than a success,13% think it has been more of a success, and 18% consider it both a success and failure equally.
But it’s important to remember that even in the febrile atmosphere of 2016, the public were mostly behind the European Union as an economic entity if not a political one. Currently, people would support the UK joining a pan-European customs area, with just 12% saying they would oppose. Support is unchanged if membership required Britain to allow free movement of people within Europe (49%) although falls sharply if it would require the UK to relinquish exclusive rights to fish in UK territorial waters or to adopt the Euro.
As the Government prioritises economic growth as its master mission, Starmer’s government will surely look for the right moment to move Britain back to closer ties with Europe in economic terms.
Trumped in defence
Another factor likely to pull British opinion towards Europe comes in the form of Donald Trump. The British have never much liked him and, in January, they were unfavourable rather than favourable towards him by a margin of nearly three to one. By more than two to one they were also more likely to think his presidency would be negative rather than positive for Britain’s influence with the US.
Another Ipsos poll in early February (before the start of negotiations with Russia about ending the conflict) found half of Britons reporting increased concern about the situation in Ukraine because of Trump’s involvement as President. Just 19% thought he was doing a good job handling the Russian invasion, lower than 27% who thought the same of the European Union (hardly a high bar), 34% the UK government and 60% Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
There are few signs of compassion fatigue — the majority continue to support Britain’s assistance to Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia, driven by a concern about the war’s impact on Ukrainian civilians. But there are similar levels of concern about the conflict’s impact on the UK economy and national security.
Other polling suggests backing for Britain’s involvement in a newly created European army (although a quarter of people don’t know) and there is current support of the Government’s intention to increase defence spending although less so of paying for it through taxation or at the expense of public services. Back in 2022, Ipsos had found opinion circumspect on increased spending on defence but based on a wild overestimation of how much was already being spent.
Zeitenwende
Europe seems to be steeling itself for a new era in which it must be less reliant on American security guarantees, more self-sufficient, something foeseen by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholtz in 2022. Investing in hard power seems to placate Trump and may have paved the way for a new UK-US trade deal.
British public opinion is more pragmatic than is often portrayed. If it had to choose between Europe and the States, it appears to be inching eastwards. Just as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 united most of Europe and emboldened NATO, so Trump’s bellicosity could yet do the same.
But the new President is a dealmaker, and if the deals he strikes deliver benefits for Britain, Britons might feel less inclined to choose, preferring to continue facing both east and west.
