Headwinds: Britain’s institutions and competence
Former Prime Ministers John Major, Tony Blair and Theresa May have added their own stinging criticism to the maelstrom that continues to surround Boris Johnson’s administration. But their critiques speak to deeper, more structural under-performance of the British state. This extends beyond №10 Downing Street. Storm clouds and strong headwinds swirl around Britain’s institutions and their reputation.
Ipsos’ research has found no new crisis of trust; there is nothing new about public scepticism about the motives and performance government, business and the media. But if we look close enough, we can see signals of change in views about competence and reliability to do the job.
Government. In Britain, and many other parts of the world, there have been recent improvements in levels of trustworthiness of Government and public services, driven in part by ratings of performance in response to the pandemic. But this is relative; perceptions remain steadfastly poor.
The Hansard Society’s last Audit of Political Engagement — in 2019 — found opinions of the system of government at their lowest point in the 15-year series and worse than in the aftermath of the expenses scandal. Currently, the Government is rated well in terms of tactical delivery — particularly the roll-out of vaccination programmes — but much less so on big strategic matters — Net Zero, Levelling-up etc.
Police. People are now significantly less likely to say they would speak highly of the police in their local area compared with three years ago. Sixty-three per cent say they trust the police to tell the truth, down from 71% in 2020 and 76% in 2019. While this score is little different to the average level of trust recorded in the police since 1983, the recent downward trajectory is matched by a similar tend in London where people have become less convinced that the Met do a good job locally.
The NHS. There is strong consensus of support for the core principles of the NHS and it remains a focus for British affection and pride, however, opinions are divided as to whether the NHS is providing a good service nationally and locally. Britons are also divided in terms of their support for the increase in National Insurance payments planned by the Government even when this is framed in terms of helping the NHS and tackling the backlog caused by the pandemic (as well as funding improved social care).
The NHS won’t be short of cash — by 2024 it will account for 44% of the state’s day-to-day spending up from 27% in 2000 but, even so, the next few years will test public perceptions of competence as, potentially, 13 million people find themselves on the waiting list.
Civil service. The civil service is rarely a topic of polling but the public’s trust in civil servants has improved over the long run. Criticism tends to come from those close to Whitehall, but among the public at large, there is a substantial, 30-perentage point, gap in perception between degree-holders who are the most positive, and those without qualifications. Bubbling under the surface is an increasingly politicised discourse about the civil service and its reform.
Monarchy. While the Royal Family has withstood a turbulent few years, public opinion still contains more supporters than critics. However, in November 2021, Ipsos found the lowest level of support the monarchy has received since 1993. The Queen’s personal ratings are higher than we’ve ever recorded for a politician, but approval of the way Prince Charles is doing his job has fallen back to 1998 levels. Young people are more likely to want to keep the monarchy than abolish it but are notably cooler than older generations.
This is also the case for the BBC. Auntie Beeb has long been positively regarded and, in 2020, Ipsos found it to be the most trusted news source. But attachment to the licence fee is much weaker among younger age groups who are ‘narrowcasting’ natives, moving away from television in general and the BBC in particular.
What next? Past surveys of Britons have shown a tendency towards pride in of our history and institutions, but these are facing substantial challenge for a range of reasons including ‘culture wars’, socio-economic change and complexity plus difficulties with delivery.
The width of the ‘credibility gap’ was already evident before the turbulence of Brexit and Partygate, but the ‘competence gap’ should concern us too. Better delivery by Britain’s institutions, reform and a renewed focus on statecraft won’t entirely change the weather, but it ought to create calmer conditions.
