Leviathan 3.0
It is an iconic, arresting image. A crowned giant dominates the landscape, clutching a sword and a crosier. His torso and arms are made up of over 300 humans. Underneath is a quote in Latin, taken from the Book of Job which means ‘There is no power on earth to be compared with him’.
The image adorned Thomas Hobbes’ famous book — Leviathan — published in 1651. It is thought to be the original source of the concept of a social contract between government and governed. That contract has been reshaped and tested countless times ever since, particularly during periods of crisis such as the Second World War and most recently the Coronavirus pandemic which prompted unprecedented Government intervention, most notably in the form of lockdowns, the furlough scheme and mass vaccination.
Since then, a period of polycrisis has included a climate emergency, a cost-of-living crisis, the start of an economic recession, huge geo-political tensions and threats. The British Social Attitudes Survey recently reported 40% of Britons being very concerned about the environment at the end of 2021, almost double the proportion who said this in 2010. In May, Ipsos found a quarter said they had skipped meals due to the rising cost of living. Last month, 57% said they were concerned about blackouts in their area over the winter and 41% think it probable they will experience one. This is a period of high anxiety, and the ‘loss of the future’.
One in five need advice to enable them to reduce their energy use at home. While, naturally, people think that energy companies should be responsible for providing this but the same proportion — two in five — think the Government should do it. This appetite for advice extends to intervention and instruction. In September, three-fifths of people said they would support rules requiring households to reduce their energy use.
Back in 2013, three in five agreed that “we now expect more of government than we do of God” and, while a more contemporary measure might reflect changes in religiosity as much as anything else, the finding underlined some public awareness of its own high expectations. If anything, there is even more pressure on Government to take control in crisis moments.
During the pandemic, public opinion was ahead of policy, favouring the imposition of lockdowns which some in Whitehall and Westminster didn’t think would be tolerated. Severe restrictions to freedoms, being told what to do and where to go, were accepted. The public were, in effect, inviting more Government intervention and direction in exchange for compliance and playing and paying for their part.
Trust is an issue though. For example, half the proportion who think both the Government and energy companies should provide energy advice information would trust them to do so. This is likely shaped by perceptions of intentions and competence which are in short supply across a range of issues, from immigration to policing, the NHS and the economy. Although not a uniquely British phenomenon, Britons were the most likely among citizens in 36 countries to blame government policies for rising cost-of-living according to a survey by Ipsos for the World Economic Forum.
These are challenging sentiments to manage, particularly for Conservative politicians suspicious of ‘nannying’. In her short period in charge, Liz Truss reportedly blocked a public information campaign, over-ruling Jacob Rees-Mogg’s backing for encouraging households to reduce their use of gas and electricity by taking a series of simple measures. Before her, David Cameron introduced the‘Big Society’ as an antidote to the Big State, and Margaret Thatcher was committed to “rolling back” its frontiers.
There has always been a good degree of nuance to public attitudes towards the role of the State with, for example, Britons generally pragmatic about state or private ownership of key industries (there has, though, been an edging in favour of nationalisation). A global study a few years ago found “surprisingly high levels of support for prohibitive government legislation” but also strong resistance at a general level, and Britons tended to be among the coolest. People tend to simultaneously want Government to get both further in and out of their lives.
Minouche Shafik’s recent book, What We Owe Each Other: A New Social Contract describes disaffection which “stems from the failure of existing social contracts to deliver on people’s expectations for both security and opportunity”. She argues that the contract between the government and the governed needs recasting. Gordon Brown suggests a Labour government create “social rights” covering housing and health, fair working conditions and culture.
Will disaffection rise in Britain? That’s the prediction made by Joel Budd in The World Ahead, 2023. He quotes Martin Lewis’ suggestion that civil disorder about rising prices is “not far away” but argues that riots — “overdue” in Britain — are more likely to be triggered by dissatisfaction with policing than anything.
Leviathan was needed because, otherwise, life would be “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short”. Things are not that bad yet, but that is a pretty low bar. The social contract has vastly improved social outcomes, but Leviathan is now in need of an update.
