Mess on toast
The state of public and political opinion in Britain
Some enterprising souls have tried, but as the saying goes, “you can’t un-toast toast.” The polls consistently show the Conservatives trailing Labour by large margins not just in terms of voting intention but also their image and policy positions. Minds appear to have been made up — the country is in the mood for change.
In June, Ipsos found just 12% of Britons satisfied with the way the Government is running the country. Most people continue to have unfavourable views of the Conservatives. Seven in ten, 70% think they have done a poor job in government, 69% think the same of their economic record (the worst scores for the Conservatives since taking office in 2010) and a persistent 65% believe it is time for a change at the next election.
The Conservatives struggle with negative public perceptions about their policies, their instincts and their competence. This is evident in a greater expectation of ‘chaos’ if a Conservative government is elected with no overall majority following the next General Election than if the same thing happened with Labour.
If Tory bread is toasted, Britain’s is too. “We’re in one hell of a mess” said Chris Patten, former chair of the Conservative Party, on BBC’s Question Time recently. The ‘we’ in his warning wasn’t the Tories, it was the country.
Most people agree. Only 26% of people think the country is heading in the right direction. This marks a six-point decrease from the previous month. While 76% think Britain is becoming a worse place to live, just 6% say better. Inflation and the cost of living are top concerns, but there are also growing worries about poverty, social inequality, crime and violence.
Contrary to the handwringing about the appeal of ‘green’ policies following the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election result, Ipsos finds consistently strong levels of public concern about climate change. More than half still think there is time to deal with it, but faith in Britain’s leaders appears low. Similarly, the depth of pessimism about the state of the NHS will make it very difficult for anybody to reassure people about the future of the service.
And then there is Brexit. Ipsos has recorded eight consecutive months when the proportion of Britons saying Brexit has had a negative impact has been at or above 50%. According to YouGov, ‘Bregret’ hit a new record high in June. Six in ten consider Brexit to be more of a failure than a success, and surveys find businesses pointing to Brexit as a cause of stagnation. If the referendum were to be held again, 55% of Britons would vote to remain, 31% would leave.
A disgruntled population is not a uniquely British phenomenon. For example, people in Sweden, the Netherlands and France are even gloomier about their country’s direction of travel. Following a series of civil disturbances in France, what little positivity there was there fell by eight percentage points according to Ipsos’ What Worries the World survey.
Piercing the gloom matters for Labour as well as the Conservatives. Keir Starmer’s party will not benefit from the wave of public optimism, and a benign economy, in the same way Tony Blair did. The importance of setting out a positive vision for Britain was among Deborah Mattinson’s five-point plan for Labour to capture Red Wall defectors back, set out in her book ‘Beyond the Red Wall’.
As colleague Keiran Pedley has put it, “better the devil you don’t know” might be enough to win the next General Election but, after Uxbridge, Alastair Campbell and others have urged clarity on Labour’s policy positions. Most Britons think Labour will win the next election, but the size of that victory is far from clear-cut in their minds.
Being bold and giving voters positive reasons to turn out and vote Labour would generate additional political and electoral capital. ‘Sealing the deal’ would ultimately enhance Labour’s prospects for achieving something in power. Complacency and the ‘credibility gap’ are probably Labour’s biggest enemies, and Britain’s too.
But where might that positivity come from? Contrary to a tendency to highlight and assume division, there are areas of consensus in public opinion, and a “striking” new one comes in terms of the best ways to tackle poverty and inequalities according to The Policy Institute at Kings College London. Coincidently, inequality was at the heart of Patten’s diagnosis — “…the poorest 20% in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20% in Poland. That is not the sign of a community, of a country, which has things going for it.”
The Policy Institute found broad public support for a wide range of potential solutions across seven areas — employment, tax, social security, housing, health, education and equalities. There were important differences in worldviews but “plenty of potential for common ground”.
Apparently, a reverse toaster is a possibility. According to Youtuber ‘Joel Creates’, all you need to do is “gut the innards of a toaster and pick up some ultra-sonic fogger modules.” Easier said than done, of course.
