Mind the gap
Housing: how different is public and MP opinion?
There are more than 20 million houses in Britain but people in just one make all the decisions; MPs in The House develop policy and legislation which changes the fortunes and misfortunes for everyone else. As they look set to make some big decisions on housing in the next few years, it’s timely to take stock; do MPs share the same worldviews and priorities with the people they represent?
Such a question is easier posed than answered because we lack for reputable surveys of both audiences. These must be completed using the same questions at roughly the same time to provide us with a reliable way of comparing/contrasting. For obvious reasons, getting MPs — rather than their more accessible office staff and assistants — to participate in survey research isn’t at all straightforward.
Soon after last year’s General Election and up until September, Ipsos spoke to over 100 MPs , working to a profile reflecting the new composition of the House. Then, in November, it polled 1,000 British adults.
The two surveys included questions on economic growth — Labour’s main ‘mission’ — before focusing on housing. The results give a fascinating and unique snapshot of the similarities and differences in opinion.
Different growth mindsets
Generally, MPs tend to be more pro economic growth measures than the public. For example, asked to choose between economic growth and limiting immigration, MPs prioritise growth while the public take the opposite view. (Some would argue this is a false, forced choice, but questions of this kind can be effective in teasing out instinctive preferences).
While the public prefers growth across the UK, MPs favour regional development. And while MPs place more focus on protecting the environment over economic growth, public opinion is more divided.
MPs select new national infrastructure projects and closer ties with the EU as priorities for growth while the public focus more on public services, job opportunities and wages/workers’ rights.
Housing: more than a numbers game
Both MPs (97%) and the public (72%) agree that there is a national housing crisis. They share the view that the government can play a role in addressing it: MPs express the strongest level of confidence in government intervention — 97% disagree that there isn’t much that the British government can do to deal with the country’s housing problems compared to 68% among the public.
Both MPs and the public also agree housing supply is a problem, and want to see more homes built, however, there is particularly high support among MPs — 81% of MPs versus 52% of the public — and especially among Labour MPs.
But there are important differences when politicians and people are asked to choose between quantity and quality. MPs view both as equally important — 47% agree with both equally, with the rest split between prioritising quality and design (29%) or numbers (24%). But the public are much less equivocal — 48% choose improving the quality and design of new homes, more than double the 20% who prefer simply increasing the number built.
Both groups tend to think that decisions about new housing developments should be taken by local rather than central government. But the public favours prioritising the views of local councils and residents when planning new housing, even if it leads to fewer homes being built. MPs are more divided.
Labouring?
Differences between parliamentary and public opinion probably shouldn’t surprise us. The first-past-the-post system has delivered a House which is even less representative than usual of voter’s political preferences, let wider public opinion (including the many who don’t vote).
According to the Ipsos survey, Labour MPs are more likely than Conservative ones to emphasise housing numbers over quality and design, and as being a more important end than local input. While these results should be treated with caution given the small bases sizes involved, they indicate a bedrock of support on government benches for planning reform and the pursuit of ambitious levels of housebuilding.
But the pair of surveys also indicate jeopardy if parliamentary opinion gets too far ahead of public opinion.
While the public is likely to support the principle and theory behind Labour’s ambitious housebuilding mission, the government will need to reassure it about the practice of delivery.
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Ipsos surveys: 1,070 British adults aged 18–75, 1–5 November 2024 (online) and 106 MPs, 22 July — 30 September 2024.
