Minding a Maslow moment
There are two situations that governments fear — being out of control of events and being out of touch with people — whether perceived or real, and especially if perceived. Put these together and things can get very awkward.
Much has been made of parallels between today’s Britain and the ‘winter of discontent’ in 1978–79, but these are superficial even if the Prime Minister did his best last week to evoke the spirit of Jim Callaghan — ‘crisis, what crisis?’ (Callaghan never actually uttered those words) — but also Margaret Thatcher’s strident demands for a new economic model.
Arguably, current issues with shortages and potential price rises have stronger echoes of the fuel crisis experienced by Tony Blair’s government in 2000. In his diaries, Alastair Campbell described that time as “…absolutely terrible at the centre” with “an almost palpable feeling of a gulf opening between government and country.” While Liz Truss is right that Government is “not responsible for what’s in the shops”, it will face flak for any inadequacies in its response. The optics of empty shelves and queues at petrol stations are terrible.
With a large majority in the Commons, a continued lead in the polls, and an Opposition yet to find its feet and form, the Government is in a strong position for mid-term. But a recent Ipsos MORI poll found sentiment about the Conservatives on a negative trajectory in terms of a trio of relevant indicators; looking after the interests of “people like me”, looking out for working people, and understanding the problems facing the country.
The 32% who say the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected are outnumbered by the 46% who say they don’t. People rate the Government very favourably in terms of the vaccination programme but much less so in terms of bread and butter priorities such as crime, education and reducing regional disparity (‘levelling-up’). Memories of vaccination will inevitably fade.
Political scientists sometimes talk of the Overton window –what is acceptable in political and policy debate — and this is something that Johnson and his team with left-leaning economics and right-leaning socio-cultural stances have played very well. But occupying that window is not itself a guarantor of lasting popularity. Voters get extremely exercised by matters such as food, fuel, finance, security of housing tenure, prices and personal safety — something akin to the foundation levels in Maslow’s ‘hierarchy of needs’ — and Overton strategies cease to matter so much.
The effective management of public opinion and political campaigning means owning an issue which matters to people, in a way that speaks to their concerns and provides them with credible solutions. This winter, following a grim pandemic and slap bang in the tricky mid-term phase, feels like it could matter. It will possibly be followed by running commentary from a public inquiry into the government’s handling of the pandemic with evidence sessions likely held on TV and online.
While the Government currently has considerable political capital, failing to stay in touch or in control of this ‘Maslow moment ‘ — and being seen to do so — will surely have consequences. A tough winter won’t push the public into Labour’s hands, but it might pull some voters away from the Conservatives.
