Re-reading the riots
The 2024 (and 2011) riots and public opinion
Although they happen very infrequently, our country has a long history of riots. The shocking disorder which started in Southport at the end of July and spread across England, was the worst we’ve seen since the summer of 2011. Then, as in 2024, people, pundits and politicians were quick in trying to win control of the narrative about what had happened and why. Public opinion was part of this too.
For five days in August 2011, riots spread from Tottenham to Enfield to other parts of London, and from there to Birmingham, Bristol, Liverpool, Gloucester and Nottingham. 15,000 people took part and five people died. The media carried images of pitched battles between police and young men, stories of arson, gangs, shootings, looting and the deaths of three men protecting local businesses. Volunteers led clean-up operations. Justice was dispensed quickly. Sound familiar?
Maybe. The spark for the riots in 2011 was the police shooting of Mark Duggan. In that respect, the disturbances were similar to the riots of the 1980s, in Brixton, Toxteth and Tottenham which predated the more political riots during demonstrations against the Poll Tax in 1990 and capitalism in 1999 and 2001, and by students in 2010. Rioting in 1981 was brutal; more than 800 police were injured and over 3,000 people were arrested.
Back then to now
The Scarman Inquiry considered the Brixton riots as a spontaneous outburst of built-up resentment sparked by specific incidents. Lord Scarman described “complex political, social and economic factors” which created a “disposition towards violent protest”.
While the Thatcher government framed the riots as a simple case of criminality, behind the scenes Michael Heseltine’s case for regeneration in Merseyside, It Took a Riot, found favour and some funding (although not nearly enough and on the condition that “no publicity should be given to [it]”).
Criminality was also seen as a key reason for the rioting in 2011. Polling by ICM for The Guardian found the public more likely to attribute them to this cause (and poor parenting) than anything else. Unemployment was also salient although inequality wasn’t. Greed was considered to be important too, and the Riots, Communities and Victims Panel, set up by David Cameron, used its report seven months later to highlight the issue of rampant materialism as well as a lack of economic opportunities, a breakdown in community ties, and a loss of trust in the police and public sector.
Similar themes were evident this summer. Analysis by the Financial Times found seven of the ten most deprived areas in England had witnessed riots. 12 out of the 23 local authorities where violence took place are in the top decile for deprivation, “suggesting a relationship between pockets of poverty and unrest”.
Intolerance and racism were also identified as factors. YouGov found two-thirds of Britons considering ‘thugs’ to be an appropriate description for those involved, six in ten thought ‘racist’ was right. By contrast, just two in ten found ‘protestors’ and ‘people with legitimate concerns’ to be appropriate.
These findings have echoes in Ipsos’ latest Issues Index, carried out soon after the riots (between 7–13 August). Concern about crime jumped nineteen points compared with July — 25% now see it as a big issue for Britain. At the same time, race relations became a top ten issue for the first time since the murder of George Floyd in America in 2020.
There was a more modest month-on-month increase in immigration but enough to take it top for the first time since soon after the Brexit vote. The challenges posed by the issue of immigration remain very real — public attitudes are more nuanced and fluid on the topic than is sometimes credited. Most people want the right balance struck between compassion and competence.
Civil war or war on socials?
Notoriously, Elon Musk described the “inevitability” of civil war in the UK and criticized Prime Minister Keir Starmer for what became known as ‘two tier’ policing. Dismissed by the Government, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper singled out intolerable “armchair thuggery” and called for social media companies need to “take responsibility” over online posts encouraging criminality.
Nigel Farage admitted to sharing misinformation originating from influencer Andrew Tate and police in Pakistan recently arrested a man for initiating a story including false claims about the identity of the Southport attacker. According to YouGov, 86% of the public viewed social media as a key driving force in the unfolding unrest.
Social media, then in its infancy, was a theme in 2011 too. Use of the Blackberry messenger system (plus Facebook and Twitter) by those involved in unrest apparently prompted the Metropolitan Police to consider switching social media off. A survey by Ipsos in London the month after the riots found the public supportive of this option by 55% to 41% (although support varied depending on the way the question was framed).
An even higher proportion backed the use of curfews and water cannon in 2011 — findings were similar then to those in YouGov’s national poll this month. Also similar was the proportion rating the police’s conduct positively during rioting in 2024 as in 2011 but, nonetheless, satisfaction with the police has declined markedly in recent years.
In 2023 Ipsos, found confidence in law enforcement to stop crime and arrest the right perpetrators to be lower in Britain than the 29-country average across a range of metrics. YouGov found most people thought the rioters would get away with it. Was this a reason for the lawlessness we saw?
Time to learn and to heal
The riots will do little to ease an overwhelming sense that British society is divided these days although things had shown signs of improvement according to research by Ipsos taken before August’s unrest.
Ipsos has also found that half, 52%, say that the most tension exists between immigrants and people born in Britain, up from 42% in 2019. Still, this perception of the culture of British society sits uneasily with personal opinion; over a longer period, the proportion of Britons who say that being born in Britain wasn’t important to being “truly British” doubled between 2013 and 2022. And a tiny proportion think you need to be white to qualify.
Britons are less concerned than Americans about political violence in their country but that’s a low bar. It is both disturbing and illuminating that the conclusions reached by the research conducted in 2011 to understand the riots, are still very relevant now; in many ways, what happened in 2011 was a foretaste of 2024. If anything, the multiple driving factors are probably even stronger given the extra intensity of tensions and the malign influence of social media.
More encouragingly, surveys conducted since August’s unrest, suggest that people can draw a distinction between political protest and grievance, and unacceptable rioting. They have no truck with it, nor with racism.
While justice has been impressively swift — there have been more than 1,000 arrests so far — it will take time to learn the necessary lessons from the eruption of rioting across England this month, even longer to heal scars. It will be time well spent.
