Snap polls (2)
Mini-blogs covering public opinion and a mix of topics — strikes, the Budget, politics, immigration, globalisation and housing
Stricken Britain
We’ve been living with strikes for a while now. While public opinion is often presented in the media as being pro- or anti- strike action, the reality is much more nuanced and conditional, and says a lot about wider attitudes towards Britain.
Earlier this month, Ipsos published a poll which showed that 48% of Britons and 60% of parents supported teachers walking out. Around four in 10 parents were concerned about the impact of strikes on their child’s education or exams but more, six in ten, were concerned about a lack of funding in education.
Teachers are the fourth most supported profession among nine, behind nurses, ambulance workers and junior doctors but significantly ahead of rail workers, border force/passport control staff, civil servants, university staff and driving examiners.
This tells us that people are sympathetic to the plight of public services. Aware of this, NHS staff and teachers have presented their action as an appeal to save services as much as one to improve their remuneration. Save Our Services has rarely been more germane.
Separation anxiety
Concern about public services is also evident in Scotland. In a snap poll taken by Ipsos the day after Nicola Sturgeon’s surprising resignation, her government received its most negative ratings for improving the NHS and education system in Scotland.
The state of the NHS in Scotland has been at the forefront of the public’s mind during the SNP leadership contest — it’s something 81% of Scots wanted to hear from the candidates about, alongside the cost of living (76%). More than half, 55%, said the same about plans for education and schools.
SNP voters are more likely than the wider public to mention plans for securing Scottish independence, but this still trails bread-and-butter issues. The party’s new leader must chart a new course towards independence but also find a way to improve public services.
It’s the economy, stable
The early retirement of senior NHS doctors was the main justification for a well-publicised measure during Jeremy Hunt’s Budget last week — increasing the amount people could put into their pension tax-free.
While Labour jumped on this as being a poorly targeted giveaway to the already wealthy, polling by Ipsos found it to be popular. Nearly all the announcements tested received more support than opposition. Among them, help with energy bills and freezing fuel duty were the most popular followed by additional free childcare.
Despite this positive response, Britons were more concerned than reassured about the economy, public services and personal finances. They were, though, less worried than they had been after the Autumn Statement.
This wasn’t a Budget for headlines. It was more about tone and tweaks; steady as she goes. Learning from the shock to markets caused by Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget, the Treasury took care to brief the media on the Budget’s content. There were no surprises.
Being able to avoid a technical recession is hardly a proud boast and the public are mostly critical of the Conservative’s economic record. Governments don’t tend to survive inflation shocks and severe reputational hits like the one last year, but Labour still have much more to do to convince the public they have the right policies.
For the foreseeable future, and to adapt a phrase, it has to be a case of economic stability, stupid.
Concealed crises
Nadhim Zahawi is one of very few Chancellors of the Exchequer who didn’t get to stand outside Number 11 Downing Street holding up a red box and deliver a Budget. More recently he was embroiled in a scandal about tax avoidance.
One outcome of polycrisis — a better Word of the year than permacrisis in my book — is that important matters with a legitimate claim for attention get sidelined. The climate crisis, the housing crisis, social care, solving the productivity puzzle, the list goes on. We can add another; an ongoing crisis in the standing of our politics and many of our institutions.
This might sound melodramatic, and the yawning credibility gap isn’t a new phenomenon. But it says a lot when lack of faith in politicians and politics is the fourth highest concern as measured by Ipsos’ Issues Index and has been in the top group for a while. This is significant because the Index captures spontaneous, top-of-mind concerns. When asked about the most important issues facing the country, respondents are volunteering something rather than reading from a list.
There are short-term factors at play including ‘Partygate’ and the drip-drip effect of multiple cases of wrongdoing. Trust was never high but last year’s Ipsos Veracity Index recorded the lowest score for politicians in its long history. Now, only three in ten trust their own MP to tell the truth all or most of the time, less than one in five trust MPs in general or government ministers.
It seems that the public’s patience with politics weakens further when there are doubts and distaste about delivery and competence. That could change if we settle into a less chaotic, more managerial phase. But renewal will surely only happen by design, not by accident.
More liberalism, fewer boats, more competency please
Initial explanations of the Brexit vote in 2016 tended to focus on the importance of economic factors and untrammelled globalisation creating left behind areas allied to a backlash against immigration. So, it is significant that seven years on, polls show changing attitudes towards both issues as well as a high degree of Bregret.
Ipsos’ latest Global Trends study found that in Britain as elsewhere and despite much talk of de-globalisation, there has been a slow but sure increase in the proportion of people believing that globalisation is good for them personally and for the country.
The World Values Survey conducted in the UK by Kings College London ranks the country among the most socially liberal countries internationally, following significant shifts in attitudes on homosexuality, casual sex, abortion, euthanasia and divorce (although it is relatively less liberal on the death penalty). It is also at the top of an international league table as the most accepting of new arrivals.
‘Stop the boats’ may reflect concern in some quarters but it is also an attempt to escalate the issue’s salience. However, while those who voted Conservative in 2019 place far greater importance on detaining and removing those entering the UK illegally than Labour voters, they also rank dealing with the cost of living and speeding up NHS treatment times as the most important of Sunak’s five pledges (the NHS is also clear top among Starmer’s missions).
Immigration and borders look unlikely vote-winners but imagine the bonus if the Government can demonstrate delivery and competence. That would please voters who prioritise these issues as well as impressing those who don’t.
Not enough, everywhere, far from all at once
The cost of housing crisis continues unchecked. There was little of note on housing in the Budget and no change to Local Housing Allowance.
A recent Ipsos survey shed light on the financial implications to people of rises in rents and mortgages but also the jolting impact on their ambitions to buy property. A third of private renters say they spend half or more of their personal monthly income on their rent. A similar proportion reported recent rent increases in January as did in October 2022 and there is a strong expectation of further rises. Meanwhile, rough sleeping in England recently rose for the first time in five years.
Harsh realities are driving pessimism. Most renters are gloomy about their buying potential. More than half don’t think they will ever be able to buy a home or will only be able to do so if they inherit money from relatives. They are sensitive to the precariousness of housing and view affordable housing as central to this. Across the UK, three-quarters believe that homelessness will increase in the next 12 months in the country they live in.
This matters because six in ten agree that getting on the property ladder is one of the most important ways of getting on in life and a higher proportion see decent, affordable housing as a right. The public also think building more homes is at the heart of tackling the housing crisis. And while people always need persuading of the merits of local building, they are not as nimby as is often portrayed.
What’s the target though? How many new homes we need to build has been the subject of conjecture recently, as Paul Smith has written, “one thing’s for sure we are not going to build anywhere near enough under current policy”. According to the Centre for Cities, England currently builds around 230,000 new homes a year, a figure that has been increasing, but France still builds around 380,000 a year despite recent falls.
The Levelling Up White Paper included planning reform to improve homeownership and housing quality. Streamlining the planning system has been a goal for a few years now but the Government has found this too difficult, particularly as its political capital has waned and backbenchers have become more fractious.
According to The Economist’s columnist Bagehot, planning reform is the “closest thing the country has to a £50 note on the pavement”. Many would agree, but it still takes attention and a little luck to find and claim something so elusive.
