Snap polls: week 1
A series of mini-blogs covering public opinion, polling and GE 2024
First steps, one big leap, and we’re off
Last week started with continued coverage of Labour’s first steps and finished with the early skirmishes in a General Election campaign triggered by Rishi Sunak on Wednesday.
Labour’s priorities chimed with public opinion, but so too had Sunak’s five promises unveiled at the start of 2023. But one priority stands out above all others; Ipsos found three in five (63%) want a Starmer government to focus on improving the NHS in the first six months of government. The next highest — dealing with the cost of living — was mentioned by 44%.
Focus on the NHS, the jewel in the crown of Britain’s public services, is not new and gives the backdrop the feel of 1997, cause and effect of a sentiment behind change. No-one should be surprised if Labour revives Sir Tony Blair’s “24 hours to save the NHS” attack line (simultaneously evoking memories of 1997).
Sunak’s calling of the election left many people scratching their heads; why now? when things are so bad? We’ll have to wait to find out, but I think that the best theory relates to finances, of the private not public variety. This week, Labour put out an appeal for donations which suggested the Conservatives’ £34 million could fund digital ads being put to the entire voting population over 50 times. The absence of revenue raised by autumn’s party conferences probably hurts Labour more than the Tories.
In April, Ipsos found that more than half of Britons wanted the general election held by the end of the summer. That probably doesn’t auger as well for the Conservatives as having more money to spend than Labour.
AC/DC politics
For several years, one of my favourite metaphors about public opinion was that it was like an 800-pound gorilla. It was developed by Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI, who suggested that most of the time the gorilla would smile benignly but could get mad and dangerous with the smallest poke.
It’s a great metaphor but possibly shows its age. The frequency and intensity of pokes in recent years have probably changed the beast’s resting face!
I’ve had a go at my own. This one also describes the relationship between politicians and public, between government and governed. I’m likening this to power supply, to direct and alternating currents.
With direct current, electricity flows in a fixed direction whereas alternating current is more of a pulse with changes from positive to negative and from negative to positive.
There are times when politics and policymaking tend towards the direct, one-way nature to broadcast or to listening mode. But to thrive it needs both — more alternation.
49 into 1,614 will go
Rishi Sunak recently appealed to voters to look beyond the 49 days of Liz Truss’ premiership and judge the whole record of the government, a record he is proud of.
This seems very unlikely. Earlier this year, Professor Sir John Curtice summed-up Labour’s election campaign on the issue of the economy in “two words…Liz Truss”.
In November 2022, Britons were most likely to mention the Conservative party’s economic policies in government (74%) and decisions made by Liz Truss (73%) as causes of rising interest rates alongside the state of the global economy (73%).
In the next few weeks, Labour will seek to revive memories of the mini-budget, and what the party had called the “Truss premium” on mortgage repayments (doubly important given the electoral significance of mortgage-holders).
Even if the macro-economic position improves, Labour will build on ‘securonomics’ and talk to people’s lived experience - today’s ‘JAMs’.
In April 2022 — before the mini budget — I wrote that the performance of the economy doesn’t determine voting intention as much as it once did, but recognised that its management can feed and reinforce perceptions, harming re-election prospects even if things are improving.
The 2024 election appears different to 1997 in one important respect, very similar in another. While the British economy is sluggish today, it was flying in 1997, but 1997’s ‘Black Wednesday’ moment is 2024’s mini budget, a clincher for change.
In The Unfinished Revolution, New Labour’s pollster Philip Gould was dismayed by focus group participants recalling the (1978–9) ‘winter of discontent’ on the eve of the 1997 election as a reason for not voting Labour. However, this wasn’t half as potent as the more recent Black Wednesday .
Replace these with the infamous “there’s no money left” note, and the mini budget, and we’re bang up to date.
