Snap polls: week 6
A series of mini-blogs covering public opinion, polling and GE 2024
As any politician whose party is behind in the polls is fond of saying, ‘there’s only one poll that counts’. That poll is a handful of days away.
Opinion polls, even MRP polls, don’t determine election results (although their prevalence during this election has sparked the beginnings of a debate about their influence). General election 2024 is already in the hands and minds of some voters — five years ago, 21% of the total voted by post — and will be entirely so come Thursday.
Robert’s (sort of) question
During the Leaders’ debate on BBC1 on Wednesday evening, questioner Robert asked of Sunak and Starmer, ‘are you the best we’ve got?’ The thrust of his entirely rhetorical question was an unambiguous ‘I don’t like either of you’.
This is a widely held view. Last week, Ipsos found Rishi Sunak to be the most unpopular Prime Minister ever at this stage of campaign. His net score — the proportion satisfied minus those dissatisfied — is -55 (fieldwork was conducted 21–24 June).
At the same time, if Starmer’s Labour win on 4 July, his net score of -19 would be the worst for a Leader of the Opposition entering Number 10, inferior to Thatcher, Blair, and Cameron.
Sunak’s score is worse than his predecessors by a country mile. John Major’s -27 in 1997 looks positively healthy by comparison and, perhaps a better comparison, was a solid +4 in April 1992 after he took over from Thatcher.
Boris Johnson wasn’t as popular as is sometimes portrayed, and his net rating was -20 in 2019, while David Cameron and Theresa May went into elections in single digit negatives. Typically, Prime Ministers call elections when their stock is relatively high. Sunak didn’t.
What if we combine the ratings of Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition, more in line with the point Robert was making? Sunak and Starmer average -37, Sunak and Starmer’s average is-37, worse than Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn’s -32 in 2019 although, importantly, it is the Prime Minister who is outscoring on negativity this time.
The worst in the Ipsos series? In June 2019, Theresa May and Corbyn polled a miserable -51. It wasn’t an election period but May was gone soon after. Corbyn survived only for Labour to be trounced at the election six months later.
Bruised, then battered?
Pollsters sometimes talk about leaders being assets to their political parties, meaning that they poll better than the organisations they lead. Periodically, a leader becomes a liability. That’s easy enough to deal with — the leader can simply be removed — but “detoxifying” a party is a much bigger ask.
Keir Starmer has done this. As The Economist put it in its endorsement of change, “Labour’s reinvention deserves credit” (and, they argue, it is instructive of how he will govern if his party wins).
During Starmer’s time in charge, there has been a crossover in public opinion. In 2021, the Conservatives had a slim lead on likeability. Labour had been on a downward trajectory under Corbyn but under Starmer, Labour has turned it around, and they are now twice as liked as their rivals.
Before we get too carried away, that 50% isn’t exceptional and was equalled by both Jeremy Corbyn and David Miliband. Moreover, as perceptions of Labour have improved, they have deteriorated for Starmer.
It doesn’t matter, at least not now, if Starmer isn’t especially liked because Labour are. And politics is a zero sum game. Seven in ten, 72% say they dislike the Conservative party, up from 67% a year ago and the worst figure Ipsos has seen for them since the series started in 2007.
The Conservatives’ brand appears toxic, their leader is disliked, their campaign has faltered.
Bubbling under
According to the BBC’s poll tracker, the main movement in average vote shares during the campaign has been the decline of both Labour and Conservatives — but the maintenance of a 20-point Labour lead — and the rise of other parties, especially Reform.
A longer, longitudinal, lens has been provided by Ipsos using its UK KnowledgePanel, tracking the voting intentions of the same group of over 15,000 British adults between January and June.
This found some “interesting dynamics going on underneath the surface”. While all parties have lost and gained voters — the obvious exception being newcomer Reform — the data points to the reasons for these shifts.
For example, dissatisfaction with the government and PM, especially over asylum and immigration, are key motivations for switching from Conservative to Reform. Just under half of those moving between Labour and the Liberal Democrats and vice versa are doing so for tactical reasons.
The vast majority of those who were uncertain or unlikely to vote in January have stayed in that camp. But those who have become more motivated to vote for a party, have tended more to Labour , expressing satisfaction with Keir Starmer’s leadership and are slightly more likely to mention housing. Those who moved to the Conservatives were more content with the government’s performance and more optimistic about the economy.
Nearly done
There is still road to run in this election. Rishi Sunak was punchier in last week’s debate and will fight to the end on the ‘surrender’ and ‘blank cheque’ themes. Reform will look to put recent controversies behind them, but can they? Will we some extra boldness from Labour in the final days?
According to Ipsos, tactical voting looks a more substantial factor at this election but will knowledge be sufficient about local contests to impact the result? Four in ten, 38%, say they may change their minds — the equivalent was 23% in December 2019 and 19% in June 2017.
The Economist has shown the Conservatives underperforming in marginal constituencies and threatened by Reform in stronghold seats. On the evidence of the polls and MRPs, they are losing left, right and centre.
But, yes, there’s only one poll that matters.
