Tuning back into turnout
‘None of the above’ and low turnout are a threat to Labour and the Conservatives at the next general election
After several years of political as well as social instability and uncertainty, things seem much more predictable nowadays. Labour’s commanding poll lead has been corroborated by several jaw-dropping by-election successes and the party seems firmly on course to win the next election, so everyone says. Shades of 1997? Maybe, but it also looks a little like 2001.
Such was the backlash against polling and its reliability following the knife-edge 1992 election, Britain appeared to suspend any belief that Labour would win in 1997 despite compelling evidence in the form of spectacular by-election results. The landslide victory achieved by Tony Blair’s New Labour was followed by another win four years later, but the main story then was turnout which fell an eye-watering 12 percentage points to 59%, a record low.
Subsequent research studies by Ipsos for the Hansard Society and The Electoral Commission — one was called ‘None of the above’ — pointed to a stronger sense of anger than apathy among the public. It wasn’t that people had turned their back on politics, it was more that they didn’t like the choices on offer.
The plunge in turnout was foretold by lower-than-average turnout at by-elections during the 1997–2001 Parliament, something pointed out recently by Professor Sir John Curtice. Turnouts at by-elections are always lower than general elections but those of 1997–2001 were lower still. A similar pattern has been evident recently with 46% voting in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, 45% in Selby and Ainsty, 44% in Mid Beds, just 36% in Tamworth despite, perhaps because, of feverish attention devoted to them.
Dips in turnout are likely to be driven by several factors. According to Ipsos, nearly 2 in 3 Britons expect Labour to form the next government. Even those who support the Conservatives (50%) or who voted for the party in 2019 (57%) expect a Labour win to be the outcome.
By-election results only serve to bolster this conviction of a government-in-waiting. Suddenly, even the bluest of Blue Wall constituencies looks vulnerable. Businesses tends to back a winner, even more so a potential winner, and Labour’s annual party conference was better attended than usual.
This sense of inevitability can have a soporific effect on the electorate and is possibly compounded by a phenomenon first identified by Professor Bobby Duffy in his ‘perils’ series using Ipsos data. The British under-estimate the extent to which their fellow-citizens turn out to vote, potentially serving to make non-voting more socially acceptable.
The challenge Labour faces getting out its vote isn’t new; it tends to draw support from segments in the electorate with weaker “voting power” (smaller in sheer size but weakened further by lower turnout). It may be in opposition this time but, as in 2001, there is a risk of complacency. Today’s polls don’t show much popular enthusiasm for Labour at this point, and the country is a gloomier, more cynical place than in was twenty years ago.
Labour is not alone in facing this challenge. Some Conservatives blamed their recent results on “apathy” among natural supporters as well as wider dissatisfaction with the government. Presently, the polls suggest that what has become the ‘core base’ of Conservatives are less likely than Labour-intenders to rate themselves as 9 or 10 on a likelihood to vote scale (with 10 being ‘absolutely certain’ to vote) — 63% compared to 81%. Perhaps more importantly, the proportion is 68% among those who voted Conservative in 2019 which includes millions who ‘lent’ their vote to “get Brexit done”.
Does this matter? There are always large chunks of the electorate who don’t much care for politics. A quarter recently admitted to not following either the Labour or Conservative party conferences at all. That’s hardly a death knell for our politics but more striking is that a third of people, 34%, see neither Sunak nor Starmer as capable of being PM and 29% think no-one has the best policies for managing the economy (or say they don’t know).
‘None of the above’ is back, although it never really left us. Looking back at a highly charged period in British politics with several very consequential referenda and elections, and a backdrop that featured five of the last six Prime Ministers being appointed by their own parties rather than voters. The ‘them and us’ credibility gap feels as wide today as it has ever been; levels of trust in politicians is down at levels last seen after the expenses crisis of 2009 and Ipsos’ monthly Issues Index still counts lack of faith in politicians as one of the most mentioned ‘important issues’ facing the country.
This might not derail Labour’s prospects next year, but if it were to win on a low turnout this could weaken its mandate and the political capital it needs to deliver change. It would also make the two terms Starmer says he wants harder to achieve. And it could well be one of the stand-out stories of the election and its immediate aftermath.
