What’s next, now
What the public thinks about funding our forces (plus conscription), assisted dying, and banning smartphones for kids
On the face of it, there has been little change in what matters most to people. In January this year, the economy, NHS and inflation were ranked in the top three issues in the monthly Ipsos Issues Index, and they still are. The top ten have remained the same too.
Peoples’ top-of-mind concerns are both cause and effect of the news agenda but this is much jumpier and more varied. There is always movement under the surface, signs of new issues emerging, new (or refreshed) points of contention and debate which push through and catch media, political and public attention, even if fleetingly so. Events, experience and evidence can drive salience.
As an example, here are three issues in the news in recent weeks, which could become sticky, even ‘wicked’, issues in the future.
Military might (or might not)?
Secretary of State for Defence Grant Shapps recently described a need for Britain to change its mindset from ‘post-war’ to ‘pre-war’. This was an echo of a speech given by General Sir Patrick Sanders who called for greater preparedness in Britain as well as an increase in the size of the army. This month, the Prime Minister committed to increasing investment, so too has Sir Keir Starmer, and both have backed renewal of the nuclear deterrence.
At the very least, this would mean increasing spending on the Armed Forces and some important fiscal trade-offs. In 2022 — after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but before the conflict in the Middle East — Ipsos found Britons were divided over whether more should be spent on the Armed Forces, with defence featuring below several other public services. However, the same poll found people overestimated how much the British government spends on defence; perception was four times higher than reality.
Sir Patrick had spoken about the need to train citizens to fight to be ready for a future war, alluding to conscription, a prospect Admiral Sir Tony Radakin subsequently played down. Just as well; YouGov have found large numbers of conscription age Britons saying they would refuse to serve.
A new beginning of the end
The Economist describes this as, potentially, Britain’s “next big social reform”. Legislation is moving forwards in Jersey, the Isle of Man and Scotland, and Sir Keir Starmer has said he supports a law change and a free vote while Rishi Sunak has suggested he would allow parliamentary time for a bill. Informed by international evidence, medical opinion is changing too — the BMA has moved from opposition to neutrality.
Public opinion is favourable. According to Ipsos, two-thirds of Britons think it should be legal for a doctor to assist a patient aged 18 or older in ending their life by prescribing life-ending medication that the patient could take themselves.
Clear of half would support it being legal for doctors to assist a patient who is not terminally ill but suffering in a way they find unbearable, ending their life by prescribing life-ending medication that the patient could take themselves.
There is a conditional element to opinion. But the supportive sentiment this potential reform starts out with, contrasts to the position faced by other previous fledging reforms.
Unsocialising teens
Jonathan Haidt’s ‘The Anxious Generation’ has brought evidence to calls to do something about children’s access to social media. He argues that the rise of smartphone usage alongside the decline of free-play in childhood has created mental distress among teenagers.
The Online Safety Act gives Ofcom responsibility to help make online services safer and Michelle Donelan, the Technology Secretary, is apparently looking at imposing restrictions. Earlier this year, the Government issued non-statutory guidance to schools in England aimed at stopping the use of phones during school hours.
YouGov have found Britons split on the idea of banning under-16s from having smartphones with similar proportions supportive, opposed, and unsure. This masks considerable differences by age; older age groups are more supportive, while those aged 18–24-years-old are net opposed. So too are parents of 11–15-year-olds while another poll found parents of primary school children to be very supportive of a ban.
There may be a degree of scepticism among parents — a sense that the genie can’t be put back in the bottle — and the politics could be complicated too. The Prime Minister has already faced criticism for his proposal to ban anyone born after 2009 from being able to buy cigarettes legally. Banning is easier said than done particularly in your political capital is tiny.
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These are just three of many issues which won’t command immediate or concerted attention, nor swing the next general election, but could have a significant bearing on people’s lives in future (literally in some cases).
They may be slow-to-burn issues but could be ones to watch as they become potential new components of political discourse, culture wars, and reform in modern Britain.
