“Will not waver”
An update on the state of public opinion on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine
About a year ago, tens of thousands of Russian troops moved into Ukraine from the north, east and south. Russia’s invasion was the first large-scale war of aggression in Europe since the Second World War. It has caused incredible suffering and destruction, significant change but also continuity.
The United States had previously tired of being the world’s policeman particularly after a series of “forever wars”, but now seems comfortable trading diplomatic blows with Russia and China. In Germany, zeitenwende signalled a radically different approach to world affairs. NATO has got its mojo back. The West has stuck together.
After initial Russian advances, Ukrainian resistance and counteroffensives, the war has deadlocked and forces regrouped ahead of fresh offences in the Spring. World and public opinion has remained consistently steadfast. Last October, 143 nations in the United Nations General Assembly condemned Russia’s actions and, this month, 141 voted in favour of a motion calling for peace in Ukraine as soon as possible.
Public opinion matters during times of conflict. It can embolden leaders on their course of action including the deployment of hard or soft power, or it can reign them in. As George Gallup proposed in an article in the American Philosophical Society journal as long ago as 1942, public opinion can, and should, inform policymaking in response to the impacts of war and endeavours to build peace when that is possible.
It is not untypical for the public to initially rally behind the flag before support wanes and patience wears thin. The public can become confused and cynical over time about the objectives and success of missions. American Presidents know more than most that they must lead opinion as well as follow it, and Joe Biden’s speech in Poland last week included talk of “not wavering” which was as much a rallying call as a status update.
In Britain, there has been no compassion fatigue. The Russian invasion continues to play on people’s minds. According to Ipsos, seven in ten pay close attention to news stories on the subject, despite considerable competition for attention during a period of ‘polycrisis’. People are supportive of Ukraine and the role the UK is playing in the conflict; in fact, support for what is being done has increased eight percentage points since October 2022.
Almost six in ten agree economic sanctions against Russia are necessary to support Ukraine and encourage Russia to end the war, even if it means energy and food prices remain higher for a while. This is three times the proportion who say the sanctions aren’t worth the economic impact they are having on UK energy and food prices. This sentiment has stood firm amid a cost-of-living crisis.
Support is highest for humanitarian aid but a majority back sending money and weapons and allowing in refugees. Around half think the UK is providing the right amount of support.
President Biden predicted “very bitter days, victories and tragedies.” Nobody thinks conflict will be short-lived. For now, public opinion in Britain stands full square behind a resolute coalition of nations who have got “Ukraine’s back” and are on the right side of history.
