Snap polls: week 4
A series of mini-blogs covering public opinion, polling and GE 2024
It’s been a week of manifesto launches, ‘crossover’ polls, and evidence of a record-low in public trust and confidence in government and politicians.
Murmurings about the Conservatives’ campaign and the strategic thinking underpinning it, have continued particularly after open talk about the prospect of defeat and Labour winning a ‘super-majority’.
We’re just past the half-way point and half-time was the metaphor former Conservative Party leader Sir Michael Howard used in a radio interview on Friday. He suggested football matches “aren’t decided by half-time”.
That’s true enough, but you can often gauge the likely result at that point. To prove the point, later that same day, Scotland were down and out against Euro 24 hosts Germany after 45 minutes, 3–0 down having had a man sent off. There was no way back.
Manifest
I finished off last week’s Snap polls with a question about whether we would see any surprises in the manifestoes of the Conservatives and Labour. It was a rhetorical one, and we didn’t. The Conservatives had already gone early with policy announcements and Labour continue tip-toeing forward with its ‘Ming vase strategy’.
Do manifestoes matter? Yes, according to the Institute for Government. They are important politically — remember the Lib Dems and tuition fees? — and also in terms of passing legislation — remember the Salisbury convention (no, me neither!)?
But they are much less important in terms of the public who, mostly, don’t read manifestoes and rely on media reporting. Voters tend to tune in as late as they can to election campaigns, if they tune in at all. As colleague Keiran Pedley put it a week ago, that 45% say they may change their mind is “under-appreciated” and one that will keep Labour fretting and some Conservatives hoping.
Crossover
While this week was potentially ‘policy rich’, the media couldn’t keep their attention away from the ‘horserace’ for long. The much anticipated ‘crossover’ moment came courtesy of a YouGov poll showing Reform nudging ahead of the Conservatives in voting intention.
If it was going to come anywhere, it was most likely via YouGov who employ a different methodology to other pollsters. While the media pounced on it, statistically speaking the change in both parties’ shares was negligible (i.e. within the margin of error).
Regardless, Reform’s trajectory and the party’s progress in the polls is important. Matthew Barnfield’s excellent summary of research around the world shows evidence of polls shaping as well as reflecting public sentiment during election campaigns.
A ‘dynamic bandwagon effect’ can boost support for a party not because it is the most popular, but because it is gaining popularity. While Barnfield says this effect is “overhyped”, it could help Reform just as Labour’s large lead could suppress turnout.
Taxing trust
On Wednesday, new research was published which showed public trust and confidence in government and politicians has fallen to a record low. The report cited a long list of causes — Brexit, Partygate, and struggling public services — a potent cocktail of failures in delivery and in conduct.
The research was conducted last Autumn. At a similar time, Ipsos found trust in politicians at its lowest point in 40 years.
Both measures were well in advance of an election campaign itself pre-dated by criticism from IFS leader Paul Johnson about a ‘conspiracy of silence’ about Britain’s fiscal predicament. Several independent onlookers have subsequently criticised the use of statistics about tax and spend during the campaign.
A recent Ipsos survey for Full Fact found four in ten people, 38%, reported having been put off voting by the level of false or misleading claims in current politics or the previous election campaign. Half, 54%, said they tend to ignore what parties and politicians say because they don’t know if they can be trusted.
According to Professor Sir John Curtice, we can add turning this “mood around” to the list of “formidable challenges facing the next government”.
Snippets
- Ipsos’ polling on the campaign (7–10 June) found half the public (48%) of the view that the Conservatives have had a bad campaign since the General Election was announced, up 7pts since the previous week.
- An Ipsos poll in Scotland (3–9 June) suggests a very close race between the SNP and Labour with signs that Labour is most likely to be “the main beneficiary” of minds changing in what remains of the campaign.
- Ipsos (also 7–10 June and before manifestos were launched) found good news for Labour as the party continues to sustain a clear lead when Britons are asked which party has the best policies on key issues like the NHS and the cost of living (and also on tax).
- However, the same poll found 51% doubtful that Labour has a good long-term plan with an even larger proportion, 67%, saying the same of the Conservatives.
